Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 20.336575 22.065856 23.932204 26.106260 28.581985 31.328773 34.628177
2025-08-24 17.270165 19.570782 22.221405 25.538876 29.634607 34.600869 41.199140
2025-08-31 15.232524 17.836607 20.991441 25.173474 30.697498 37.939465 48.510039
2025-09-07 13.756328 16.528587 20.024708 24.884095 31.684919 41.245054 56.494915
2025-09-14 12.660562 15.538772 19.292275 24.725921 32.729939 44.727915 65.587048
2025-09-21 11.723404 14.639685 18.549238 24.405837 33.423635 47.742166 74.736333
2025-09-28 11.330078 14.416202 18.680307 25.317308 36.070574 54.356966 92.526239
2025-10-05 10.687216 13.782211 18.153089 25.151300 36.935608 58.082865 106.104058
2025-10-12 10.153602 13.254628 17.722402 25.066012 37.892810 62.154092 122.227008
2025-10-19 9.784346 12.931518 17.559327 25.376191 39.570048 68.007994 145.821622
2025-10-26 9.345055 12.471596 17.144002 25.210890 40.332162 72.137122 167.268383
2025-11-02 8.928019 12.016563 16.698147 24.939638 40.838738 75.822370 189.958426
2025-11-09 8.594431 11.674733 16.416797 24.946298 41.941982 81.340482 224.273905
2025-11-16 8.240777 11.281862 16.025621 24.717379 42.533048 85.814069 259.553831
2025-11-23 7.920061 10.922121 15.663371 24.504511 43.127825 90.521648 302.124451
2025-11-30 7.624817 10.586215 15.317472 24.286885 43.678904 95.324498 352.921093
2025-12-07 7.369061 10.299427 15.034821 24.161439 44.421357 100.992688 420.150593
2025-12-14 7.103386 9.983275 14.681710 23.864045 44.713320 105.396473 489.707550
2025-12-21 7.048308 10.005077 14.912848 24.751573 48.050766 121.505639 716.759251
2025-12-28 6.833908 9.753656 14.646057 24.593540 48.717172 128.416317 887.982510
2026-01-04 6.644905 9.535697 14.425861 24.512163 49.577131 136.578489 1138.026575
2026-01-11 6.522057 9.422574 14.387401 24.812871 51.537697 150.513049 1661.732999
2026-01-18 6.342958 9.206249 14.147360 24.653144 52.180512 159.056490 2228.865723